Introduction
to
Situational Craps
All written content is under Copyright © 2000, 2001 by Larry Freiwald
For personal use only
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TO BECOME A WINNER

YOU MUST WANT TO BE A WINNER MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE!

Please login below. Thanks for signing up. Your $100 fee is well spent! 

    You are about to partake in a special, comprehensive training seminar that will have the ability to raise your level of craps play. If this is your first time in this training area, Please read this introduction and follow all instructions. If you have returned for another session, you can go to Craps Man to continue your study. 

    I encourage you to take a step by step approach as you begin. Structure your learning sessions as if you were in a classroom situation. Part of what you will be learning will require a change in mindset. Change is hard and may take time to see the logic to why a change is necessary. I respect your intelligence more than just to say something and expect you to believe me. For example, most authors will just say that a certain bet is good because the House Edge is low. But you are expected to believe House Edge is important to you as a short term player. I say that they are wrong to advise you only using House Edge to determine the value of a bet. The difference is, I fully explain why they are wrong. 

    I warn you that you may, at times, feel bogged down with my writing style. But I believe that more information is far better than less information! However, making the key points understandable is my biggest concern. I want you to know that you can contact me with any question you have. Let me earn your trust! Larry Freiwald  If you contact me, just use your back button to return.

    Now I want to make Craps Man to earn his keep!

        Craps Man - Will be your Guide to Success!

Boy, do I love my Job! I love it when I can point you in the direction of being the best you can be. Like my boss said, you are going to have your work cut out for you - but in the end - it will be worth every minute you invest in this study! This Manual/Seminar is set up in the same format as my boss's "Crapy" Manual for the beginner. Just click on the "minnie me" below for the section you want to go to.  

Situational Craps is more than a Strategy - it's a Philosophy! Perhaps you read this important article before you signed up for this seminar. If not, it is important that you understand what it is before you begin lesson #1. In any case, it is a good idea to keep the concept fresh in your mind. It will give you direction when things seem slow!  

Lesson #1, PART 1. Proper mindset before you begin understanding 7-cycles. Learn form Matt's struggle and victory. Required Reading!

Lesson #1, PART 2.  This is were your hard work will begin. You will begin to chart  7-cycles. It will be exciting to see trend patterns jump out at you!
2nd 3 sets

Lesson #2, PART 1. Learn why the experts are Wrong to tell you never to make the Big Red Bet because the House Edge is too high! You must be willing to change you Mindset to use this powerful strategy. If you are already onboard on this critical subject, you skip this section. 

Lesson #2, PART 2. Learn the structured betting pattern for an effective Big Red Strategy.

Lesson #3  Combine The Big Red Strategy with 7-cycles.

Lesson #4 An eye opening study of Key Indicators that give an indication for a change over. 

Lesson #5 Learn this powerful Place Bet Strategy and make sure you Pay-4-It First! 

Lesson #6 Practice using Key Indicators to know the best time to bring down your place bets.

Lesson #7 Combine Big Red = Big Buck$, Pay-4-It First  with your knowledge of short 7-cycles and Key Indicators and Play the Situation!

Lesson #8 Beat the Choppy Table! You are now ready to combine Big Red with a variation of Pay-4-It First and put you in control of this situational enemy of any craps player.

Lesson #9 Tracking 7-cycles and shooters! This is a powerful physical tool. You will learn a simple shorthand method to keep track of the action of each unique session. Your goal - developing table awareness!

Lesson #10 Let's talk about bankroll and how long you should stay before leaving the table.

Let's Learn to throw them thar Bones! You are about to enter the Dice Setting Training Room. You talk about a confidence builder, this is it. This training area is outside this pass word training area. However, if you have not been exposed to this physical part of the game, it will add to your craping experience! You can go directly to this area by simply clicking on me. To study more on another day you can simply enter from my home page.

Situational Craps!

The Value of Playing the Situation!

At the core of this Philosophy is the learned ability by you, the player, to adjust to the "Situation" that the random throw of the dice will present as the game of craps unfolds. Any strategy that you select to use will be a winning strategy - Some of the Time! It is the "in-between" some of the time that influenced me to develop this "cross grain" Philosophy. Most competent authors of a particular "plug-in" strategy will warn you that their strategy will not work all the time. Their solution to this dilemma is a prescribed bankroll to push through the "in-between", or a prescribed number of hits before the bets are removed. The major problem with that solution is that you become a "Slave" to that strategy! 
                                                                  
It seems simple that if one strategy works in one situation ("right side"), and another strategy works in the opposite situation ("wrong side"), having the skill to work both strategies on the same table (not at the same time!) would give you the best chance to maintain your goal to win!           

Situational Craps is a Philosophy designed to raise the game of Craps to a higher level of play.  I want to break the debilitating mindset of "Right" and "Wrong" players. I know that it is going to take time to be accepted in the craps community because I go cross grain to the established concepts of House Edge, Big Red, and the role of the Casino. But if you, and other players, are willing to study out- not just read -  what I have to say, I think that logic will prevail! The end result being that you will be Set Free to enjoy the entire game of craps - HOT or COLD! You will be able to develop and take advantage of your instinctive "knowing" when a table changes.
 
      Slavery to a "plug-in strategy" is easy. The Freedom to switch strategies as the Situation dictates has a price! The most costly price is the ability to let go of unsound beliefs, and develop the confidence that YOU are in control of your betting patterns!

You must understand that the emphases of Situational Craps is not on the "Plug-in" Strategies that I provide, or any "Plug-in" for that matter! Pay-4-It and Big Red are what I conceder the best  "Plug-in" Strategies when the right situation presents itself. The emphases is on your LEARNED ability to know how to read a table. This skill will take time to learn. However, If you have ever walked away from a Cold Table - Understand that you already possess this Ability - you just have to learn how to develop it! 

Programs like WinCraps will take a "plug-in" and run it through an automated progression of scenarios of random generated rolls. But the program can not think! You can! You will learn the concept of Table Awareness.

This will be similar to a great basketball player having Court Awareness. He has to adjust to the random (to him) situations as they unfold during the game. He has certain "Plug-in Strategies" that he has learned to apply to a certain Situation that he encounters. Learning the Basic Strategies is not what makes him a great player. Court Awareness with the Ability to Switch his strategy is what makes him great!

Your success will not depend on any "Plug-in" - they all work in the right situation with proper money management. Your success will depend on your commitment to achieve the high level of Table Awareness! You will begin to learn this by concentrating on the exercises below. By mapping out 7-Cycles, you will understand that there is more to the game of Craps than Come-outs, Passes, and No Passes! This will be an in-depth study of trends. Most experts will agree that trends dominate the short time player. However, in the same breath they will explain why the long term odds are in your favor using their strategy. Sorry Expert, but you can not have it both ways! 

As you become involved in these specific exercises for the study of trends, you will be looking at the game of Craps through the filter of 7-Cycles. In time you will discover "Key Indicators" that more times than not, will point to a change over! I call this unexplained awareness The "Weather Man Effect".  Through this filter, you will understand that there truly is Order in the chaos of Randomness! 

Before you commit yourself to the lessons, Understand that:

Success is when Preparation Meets Opportunity!

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #1 part 1
A comprehensive study of 7-cycles
Learn from Matt

(Special note: To receive the full benefit of these 7-cycles exercises, take your time to first understand the following instructions! There is no short cut to learning how to play Situational Craps. "Knowing-Why-Wins" is a new concept in the game of Craps. I expect resistance as I attempt to take players in this new direction. Matthew Gurr has proven my exceptions correct! Though I believe that most players (in silence, and to my concern) will learn just enough to get them in trouble, Matt e-mailed me with an interest of moving up to the next level of training - Key Indicators. I kept an ongoing e-mail dialog that follows his initial resistance to understand why the instructions for lesson #1 are important, to his personal victory of understanding that "KNOWING-WHY-WINS" truly are Repeatable Wins! In Matt's desire to share his struggle and ultimate success, He has agreed to allow me to post our e-mail dialog. I believe that this is a must read if you desire to raise your level of play by going beyond luck, and setting yourself free, as you play this great game of Craps! If after you gain this unique insight, you are willing to commit yourself to these lessons, I know you will have the proper mindset to do this lesson in the exact order it is presented.) 

The following is an ongoing dialog between Matt Gurr and myself concerning His struggle and success with the study of trends and the proper way to use Big Red Strategy. This was posted with the expressed permission of Matt with the hope it will help others deciding to get involved learning Situational Craps. Thanks Matt!  

----- Original Message -----
From: Matthew Gurr<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
To: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
Sent: December 4, 2000 11:50 PM
Subject: Re: Lesson #2

 Larry,
 I believe that there might be something to studying trends for Big Red.  Can I receive a copy of lesson #2?

 Rgds Matt G

 ----- Original Message -----
From: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
 To: <mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
 Sent:  December 04, 2000 1:34
 Subject: Lesson #2

 Hi Matt,
 Thank you for becoming involved with Situation Craps.  I will have lesson #2 available in the next week or so. How many sets have you done in Lesson #1? Spend as much time as you can doing sets. It is designed to develop your "Knower". That will take time. No easy way to learn to play the Situation. For the first 3 sets remember to just observe and do not draw an conclusions about any % of short trends! I just want you to see how Hot, Cold, and Choppy tables develop without the confusion of come-out and passes. Keep me posted on your progress.

 Thanks, Larry "AhCraps"!
 www.ahcraps.com
Play the Situation - Use a Strategy!

----- Original Message -----
From: Matthew Gurr<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
To: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
Sent: December 5, 2000 11:50 PM
Subject: Re: Lesson #2

 Larry,
 I am very interested in your Lesson #2. My conclusions from lesson #1, are that the best chances for you to capitalize on the Big Red is when the 7 has been vacant for a long time. There seems to be a pattern evolve that the 7's are grouped together after a long absence of the 7. Is this similar to your conclusions?

 Rgds Matt G

----- Original Message -----
From: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
To: Matthew Gurr<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
 Sent:  December 5, 2000 6:26 PM
 Subject: Re: Lesson #2

Hi Mat,
First I want you to forgive me for not communicating the strict requirements that tells me you are ready for lesson #2. You should have kept records of lesson #1. It is the times you were right about predicting a short cycle compared to the times you were wrong that is important. You do not mention the number of Sets that you have completed. Understand that lesson #1 is not about "Chances" it is about "KNOWING" Understand that this is a new direction I want to take the game of Craps. I want to develop a core of Situational Crap players that understand what playing the Situation is all about. Go back and carefully re-read the instructions for lesson #1. Try to understand what you are trying to achieve. It takes time to develop a skill. Embrace that time as you begin to learn what clicks inside you! I want you to develop this skill step by step the right way. Your success is my success! This is for your own good! Trust me. If you try to skip the foundation the house will fall! Remember that it will be your money at stake at the table - not mine! That alone should be the motivation to do things right. When the time is right send me the results.

 Thanks, Larry "AhCraps"!

On Sun, 17 Dec 2000 19:59:06 +1100 "Matthew Gurr"

mathewg@ozemail.com.au> writes:

 Larry,
 I had done 120 cycles and charted the results when I emailed you last. Now I have just finished another 80 rolls and this is my results- 
18 cycles that I guessed were correct 
10 I guessed were wrong 
26 no-decision would of been correct 
26 no-decision would of been wrong 
Is this the information you are looking for? I am using the Star Casino Form Fun Software. I fully believe that you are on to something here, used in the right way, when the 7's are grouping together, it is profitable! Note that the average no. of spins over 200 cycles before the 7 came up was 4.

 Rgds Matt G

 From: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
To: <mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
Sent: Sunday, December 17, 2000 10:55 PM
Subject: Re: Lesson #2

 Mat,
     Why are you in such a hurry? It sounds like you have been playing for a long time. The casinos are still going to be there! Look, there is a reason for you to complete ALL 9 SETS. It is clearly marked in red in the instructions. (I am going to post very clear instruction soon.) If you took the time to read it, it's there!) I set it up that way not to make it difficult for you! I set it up that way for you to learn! It took me over 2500 cycles before I started to understand what it meant to be in the flow. I am passing time saving information to you! 

    You are still talking about percentages. If this is all you want to see, go by the Odds charts - don't waste your time developing your "KNOWER"! I hope that you fully understand the levels of knowledge as you have done and continue to do the lessons. The first level is to convince yourself that short cycles can and do exist, and when you are ready you will discover that key indicators do exist. That is the ONLY value that Stats have! From that point on the lessons are designed to develop that unexplained KNOWER that is part of all of us. (Just knowing when something is going to happen) Your win consistency will improve as you focus on developing your KNOWER. Trends do not exist in a mathematical mindset - we want to make sense out of something that does not make sense. This is why whenever you THINK a number or trend is due because the math says it should - most of the time you are wrong! We walk a fine line between the way things should be and the way things are! The direction that Situational Craps is taking is to recognize this unexplained nature of trends and develop an unexplained KNOWING mindset to take advantage of the random situations. This can only be done in a relaxed state when you get "what you think should happen" out of the way, as you attempt to "Get in the Flow" when you just Know something is going to happen. This is the whole concept of table awareness that I talk about on my Situational Craps Page. I know that it is hard to understand what I am talking about because this is an area I can not show you - you have to experience it! 

    I do not know what you do for a living, but I am going to assume that you know more about what you are doing now than you did your first day on the JOB. It takes time, and work to achieve this level of play! If you do not have the discipline to complete lesson #1, you won't have the discipline to complete lesson #2! If I sold you this program, and you did it your way, you would lose big time! Believe me, you would want your money back! And you would have a few not-so-nice things to say to your friends. Not because it is a bad program, but because you want to cut corners. I am taking my time with you because I believe you want to learn. But if you can not follow instructions, please do not waste my time!

Thanks, Larry "AhCraps"!

 On TUE, 19 Dec 2000 21:33:19 +1100 "Matthew Gurr"
<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>writes:

 Larry,
 I am sorry that I am trying to rush this, as I have seen soo many strategies and soo many systems that do not work, that when one comes along that I think has merit, I try to make it work! I appreciate your patience and will return your email when I have done the appropriate homework.

 Rgds Matt G

 ----- Original Message -----
From: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
To: <mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
Sent: Tue, Dec 19, 2000 11:50 PM
Subject: Re: Lesson #2

 Just know that I am here if you have any questions! Just relax and enjoy each session. The first few sets, only pick out strong opportunities. The ones you KNOW are going to be short. It may be only three or four in a set - But if you select the ones you Know - and you are right - that's a 100 %. As you begin to get in the flow you will be able to predict more. Hang in there, we'll make a Situational Player out of you yet!

Thanks, Larry "AhCraps"!

 On Tue, 16 Jan 2001 20:25:10 +1100 "Matthew Gurr"
<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
writes:

 Larry,
 I have just finished completing 10 sets. Using the BIG RED strategy on the last 3 sets I would of won $1740 using $10 unit progression! Guessing correct on 20 occasions and wrong on only 3. I cannot believe that I was right so many times! Am I just lucky? I look forward to Lesson #2, as I don't know how you can make this strategy any better! RELAXED DISCIPLINE is the key, I just got to a stage especially in the last set, where I thought I knew what was going to happen, and I have only done 10 sets!! In my next few sets, I am going to combine Pay For It First and the BIG RED strategy and will keep you posted on my continuing results.

     Rgds Matt

---- Original Message -----
From: Larry F Freiwald <mygamble@juno.com>
To: <mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
Sent: Tue Jan 16, 2001 11:50 PM
Subject: Re: Lesson #2

Hi Matt,
 I want you to know that your last e-mail has made the last few years of  work developing Situational Craps worth every minute of it! You  are the first viewer (student) that has understood the concept of the "KNOWER". I knew that it would be difficult to change the minds of players to be able to see craps in a different light, and I was proven right. The fact is, you are the FIRST to fully understand what my site is all about. Because of you I am sure that more will follow. I am going to over look your comment about your just being lucky. During the last 3 sets, you observed 360 cycles. You demonstrated the patience to only play the 23 that you KNEW had a chance to be short! You were correct 20 of the 23 times - that goes way beyond luck! To give luck the credit, you would have had to play Big Red on all 360 cycles and by chance (luck) ran into a number of cold cycles that would give you a win. Even though this may have been possible, you would have to depend on running into that "LUCKY" situation again to be able to repeat your win. But because you KNOW why you won - you can repeat that win by knowing the right situation! I am going to ask you a favor for the benefit of all those bone heads (craps players) out there. We have kept a running dialog of the importance of learning Situational Craps the right way. With your permission I would like to post our dialog from the time you thought there was an easy way to learn, to the point of your success. I would need to use your full name and e-mail address to verify that your success is not something I just made up. Think about it and let me know. I will be sending you lesson #2 shortly. You will be able to expand your knowledge of short cycle by being able to predict the end of a long cycles! However, I caution you that like predicting short cycles, using key indicators will not work all the time. But learn to trust your knower. I will be looking forward hearing of you continued success!

 Thanks, Larry "AhCraps"!
 www.ahcraps.com
 Play the Situation - Use a Strategy!

On Tue, 16 Jan 2001 20:25:10 +1100 "Matthew Gurr"
<mathewg@ozemail.com.au>
writes:

Larry

I would be happy to participate.  I will keep you posted on my results.

Rgds Matthew Gurr

I hope this dialog has been of benefit to you if you had any questions regarding what is required for you to become a successful Situational Craps Player. 

    Matt's success reminded me of a story that I want you to plant deep in your mind as you begin doing the required steps in lesson #1. 

    There was once an old tattered prospector that was asked this simple question after he had hit the Mother Load. 
 "What was the secret to your success"? 
    The old prospector slowly scratched his beard and said, "Ya gotta dig a lot of dirt to get to the gold!" 

Home   Craps Man    

Lesson #1 part 2

Let's Begin!

Rules!  The game of craps Revolves around the powerful number 7. It does not revolve around passes and no-passes! Invest your time in this section and you will understand why methods of play (systems) work and why they don't work! But first you must renew your mind concerning the most powerful number on a pair of dice. Your mind must be consumed with the #7! No other Numbers will have any meaning. 7-Cycles (the interval between 7s) will be your controlled relaxed focus. Be prepared to take your time as you first learn how to read and interpret “7-Cycles”. After you have done the required number of Cycles, you will begin to attempt to predict a short cycle.  Practice! – Practice! – Practice! This must be your commitment! With Practice you will learn Patience. With Patience you will learn Discipline. With Discipline you will learn to trust your Knowledge not Emotions.  

Your first step will be to learn to recognize Trends based on 7-Cycles. 

    Your best place to do this exercise is in your home in your spare time in front of your computer. You will need a good Craps Gaming Program installed on your computer. If you are using MS Windows, I recommend a shareware called WinCraps. You will be able to use it for free for 30 days before you will be asked to buy it. I have installed it and it works well and only takes a short while to learn how to use it. Use the link for wincraps to see if it will work on your computer. 

Wincraps Craps game software

Next, you will want to set up a way to keep track of the 7-Cycles. To keep track, I have provided a Chart that you will be able to print out and use. You will notice that this chart is numbered across the top starting with 0 - 21, and down the left side from 0 - 40. If you can not print the chart page for whatever reason, you will need a pad of 4x4 Sq./In graph paper. Just fill out the graph paper to make it look like my chart. Print out at least 3 copies (1 set) for each session. (You will need enough for at least 9 sets!). Print Chart. Use Return1 to come back.

I recommend that you give yourself enough time to fill out at least 3 pages each time you are at your computer (It takes about a hour for each set). That will give you a minimum of 120 7-Cycles that you will be able to observe. I will always refer to the 3 pages as a set. You will need a set to be able to see trend patterns develop. At first it will not be necessary to fill out every number that is rolled. When you start a set, begin on line 1 going from left to right and put an X for every non-7 number. Whenever a 7 shows, circle it and move to the next line in order going down the page. If multiple 7’s show in a row, you must begin a new line after each 7. If the number of rolls exceed 21, go down to the next line and continue until the 7 shows.

As long as I am on the subject of set, I feel it is important to talk about Mind Set! If you have played Craps for a while, you know that counting random numbers that are rolled is laughed at among players. On the surface, this ridicule is justified. This is because the exact combination of numbers that you observe on one table in a given fixed period of time will probably never happen again! So the question that most players have is, “What is the use?”  It is true that counting numbers for the sake of counting numbers is pointless! What you must understand, as you do this exercise, is that your focus will be on the Trends that these numbers develop! At first, you will not even be concerned with any other number but the number 7. You will want to observe the number of rolls between 7’s. This is the reason that you will be putting an X (not the actual non-7 number) in a square for a roll that does not produce a 7. During your first 3 or 4 Sets, relax and simply observe short (1 – 6 rolls), stable medium (7 – 12 rolls), long (13 and above) rolls before a 7 shows. As you review the results of each Set, you will start to recognize distinctive patterns of short to long roll that will be grouped together. You will begin to see that there truly is a sense of order wrapped in the chaos of Randomness! It is this order that makes Trends Predictable. You already have the ability to predict Trends. It is that you have not developed this ability, nor perhaps have you understood the potential of this ability. I want to convince you that you already have the ability to predict Trends. Have you ever walked away from a “Cold” Table? If the answer is Yes, you must ask yourself, “Why?” If your answer is that you somehow “knew” that a 7 would show and you would lose money if you continued to play, well, enough said about that! Let’s begin the process to develop that “somehow knew” ability.

I have one more item concerning your “Crapy” Mind Set. Understand that Random is Random. At some point, you may think that playing Craps on your Computer is not the same as rolling Dice on a real Table. And for this reason, I recommend that you buy a pair of Casino Dice. (Most casinos offer them in their gift shop.) Just remember to keep track of at least a 3 page set from the time you start to roll them! Also, if you live close to a Casino, observe  a complete set of rolls as you keep track of the 7-Cycles.  I have spent hundreds of hours mapping out rolls in my living room,  in a Casino, and hundreds of hours mapping out rolls on my Computer. Trend patterns will develop the same in all situations. The only difference is that the Casino is much more exciting! However, the number of rolls that you will be able to observe in 5 min. on your Computer will take an average of 1 hour to observe in a Casino. The more time you spend on your Computer, the faster this phase of your learning curve will be completed!    

Read and understand the instructions for the following 3 of the nine sets. Then leave this area as you set a schedule to complete all the sets. When you have completed the exercises, return for the instruction for the next 3 sets. When you have completed 6 of the 9 sets, Craps Man will send you to a powerful strategy called Big Red = Big Buck$. All your hard work will start to make sense once you see how this strategy is structured.   

Now you are ready to start rolling the dice. This section will require a minimum of 3 sets. It will take about an hour a set, so split it up. First let’s do a quick review. Remember that the only number that is important is the #7. Start on line one and just put an “X” for each non-7 going across the sheet until a #7 is rolled. Whenever that should happen, write the number 7 and circle it. At that point the Cycle is over. Now move to the next line and start rolling until another #7 shows. Each line must end with the #7 even if it’s on the first roll! Continue this until all 120 lines in the set end with a #7. At this point the first set will be complete. Move away from your computer and look at the results. For this first set, just look at the number of short, medium, and long, 7-Cycles that are grouped together. At your convenience, work on the other 2 Sets. I am not sure if there are different random chips for different denomination Tables or if one chip controls them all. In any case, it is a good idea to go to different tables just to keep things as random as possible. Do as many Sets as you desire, the more the better, until you are convinced that trend patterns are a fact of random rolls. Pay attention to the groups of lines. Every #7 located within each group is a potential win for Big Red! What makes it possible to Predict “Cold Trends” are the group of lines where the #7 shows in 6 rolls or less. These are the Classic Cold Trends that will be easy to identify!

Every Session you do on your Computer will have different results. However, as you Practice, your Concentration will develop to a point that you will start to feel the “Flow” of the ups and downs of these groups of Trends. You will begin to recognize these windows of opportunities and realize that they do not last forever! You will begin to sense that there are Weak Opportunities and Strong Opportunities. Leave and complete this first 3 sets. Return and get the instructions for the next 3 sets.

The next 3 sets will be completed in this phase.

The next phase of your learning curve is to be able to predict a short roll, (1-6 rolls before a 7 shows), based on the trend pattern that is developing. This will be an exercise in “knowing” not guessing! As you start working on another Set, allow enough 7-Cycles to run their course before you select the “next” short roll. At any time you believe you are in a “Short” Trend Pattern, Circle the next number of the next 7-Cycle before you begin your roll. If a 7 shows before the next 6 rolls, you were correct. If not, well, this is why you are practicing. Treat every correct line as a Win! If at any time you are not sure, Put a ? on the line, understand that you do not have predict every cycle!  Keeping these records will be necessary as they will benefit your understanding to why you took a specific action!  Continue rolling out the Cycles and wait for another Strong Opportunity to predict a short cycle. Repeat these Sessions as often as you feel motivated to Practice! (Do a minimum of 3 relaxed sets! However, the more you, do the better you will become!) Think about shooting baskets as a kid (or anything that you were trying to do well!). Skill takes time to develop. Confidence, Concentration, and Patience all take time to develop. All this time you spend practicing will eventually pay big dividends when the time comes to put Big Red = Big Buck$ into action! Do not be concerned about being right every time. In this Not-so-Perfect World you won’t be! Use every attempt as a learning experience. If you are wrong about an attempt to predict a short 7-Cycle ask yourself if you were truly “in the flow” or did you get impatient? You can correct impatience! Did you miss a Cycle that you Knew was a win but failed to take action? Inaction can be corrected! If you Knew that you were “in the flow”, and the Cycle you selected was wrong because of the unexpected run of numbers, just accept the fact that you did your best! But when you predict and select a winning Cycle, be proud of the fact that you Knew Why you won and did not have to depend on Luck! Understand that the “Knowing-Why-Wins” are Repeatable Wins!  

(Special Note: This lesson is designed to develop your "Knower". It is also designed to let you see HOW trends, Hot, Cold, Choppy develop without the confusion of Come-Outs, and Passes! Do Not draw any conclusions concerning the % of trends that develop less you fall into the trap of the odds of a short trend showing. Fight the temptation to hurry through this first lesson. This is the foundation! There is no easy way to develop your "KNOWER" and know how to play the Situation!)

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #2 PART 1
Learn how to play Big Red

   

Why Big Red = Big Buck$? 
  

Life   is like a Craps Game –

You never know when a 7-Out will show up!

    If the above AhCraps.com inspired adage resonates in your very being; then perhaps you are a 7 Magnet! If this is true, - Rejoice! You are about to have an opportunity to change a 7-Out into a "7-In"! The first sentence of my "Crapy" Manual states that there are no losing numbers on a pair of dice! This truth is never more valid than for the #7. Because the law of probability predicts that the #7 will show up more times than any other number on a pair of dice, logic dictates that the #7 must be the Best Bet during the most common situation.

    Let’s look at the different ways you can make money when the most powerful number in the game of Craps shows up.

1. Pass Line during a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.

2. Come Box after a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.

3. Don’t Pass Line after a Come-Out: Pays even Odds.

4. Don’t Come behind a place number: Pays even Odds.

5. Free Odds with Don’t Pass Line after a Come-Out: (#’s 4 & 10 Pay 1 to 2 Odds), (#’s 5 & 9 Pay 2 to 3 Odds), (#’s 6 & 8 Pay 5 to 6 Odds

6. Free Odds with Don’t Come behind a place number: Same Odds as Free Odds with Don’t Pass Line.

7. Lay Bets any time: You must pay a 5% Lay Fee to receive True Odds on Bets that will produce at least a $20 Profit: (Odds on all Lay Place Numbers are the same as the Free Odds above.)

8. Any 7 or "Big Red": Pays the Odds of 4 to 1!

(Special note: One of my viewers let me know that there is one more bet on the table that pays higher than even odds for a 7 showing. If you go to a Casino that offers a 3 way 7 or also known as a Hop Bet, it will pay 15 to 1 for one combination. When all 3 are played, you will net $13 if you bet $1 on each combination. A $3 Big Red will pay $12 profit. This is all true, but my focus on Big Red is two fold. One, Big Red is universal. The "any 7" is on all Craps Tables in every Casino that offers the game. And two, I want to dispel the debilitating Mindset of House Edge. "Thanks Dan, I am sure that other viewers would have questioned my motive to leave 3 way 7 out!")

    It does not take a genius to see that in any given random roll of the dice, if the #7 shows, the Big Red Bet produces the most Profit for money you put at Risk! To put this fact in real numbers, I want to compare Big Red to Lay #4 and Big Red to the Pass Line during a Come-Out. If all three bets were in place during a Come-Out, this would be the result if a #7 were rolled:

• To produce a $19 ($20 - $1 Lay Fee) profit, you must risk $40 on Lay #4! 
• You must risk $20 on the Pass Line to produce a $20 profit. 
• However, you only have to risk $5 to produce a $20 profit on Big Red!

This is a   huge difference!

    So what seems to be the problem with betting on Big Red? It seems to have two great things working in its favor. 
    1) It offers the highest percentage of showing in any random roll! 
    2) It offers the highest profit for money risked when the #7 shows! 
    But the "Experts" are the first to tell future Craps Players in their books and magazine articles that Big Red is the Worst Bet on the Table and "Should never be made!" The answer they give to why, "in their opinion," it is a bad Bet has nothing to do with it being a One-Roll Bet; in fact, it has nothing to do with Real World "Craping"!

    Most (Maybe one with a different opinion?) Experts say that Big Red is the worst bet because the House "Edge" is a whopping 16.67%! Can you honestly say you know what this means? And if so, do you think it is a good enough reason to pass up all those 7’s on a Cold Table? You see, I don’t think that most players understand what the Experts are saying, except that, the Casino always holds the advantage over you as an individual player and the Casino is structured to Steal your hard earned money. This is total Nonsense! But because this is the standard belief, Players are missing opportunity after opportunity to turn a perceived losing situation into a winning situation. This individual strategy involves a belief that is the complete opposite of the standard belief perpetrated by the "Experts". I believe it is my responsibility to explain why I Know they are Wrong! Because, if I can not First convince you that I am right, you would be a fool to waste your time on a strategy that you have been warned by the "Experts" not to Play! But, if I can convince you that there is value in becoming a Skilled Big Red Player, consider the possibility of opening up a whole new area for moneymaking opportunitie$.

Should the "House Edge" be the

Criteria for Evaluating

The Value of a Bet?

    No! And this is why: 
The whooping 16.67% "House Edge" or the slang term "Vig", or the use of "House Odds" is only valid in the real world "Law of Averages". In the real world, Odds are not valid in the Short-Term because they must be "Averaged" over the Long-Term.  

The Casino can only receive the benefit of this "Edge" at the time they Payoff a Winner!

    Because there is so much confusion in this area of the "House Edge," I want to expand the explanation I gave on House Odds, as it relates to the "Edge," in my "Crapy" Manual. 
    This "Edge", first of all, is a misleading term that has the ability to make somebody, (most people), acquire the false belief that the Casino has rigged the game of craps in their favor! You will hear the slang term "Vig". The term "Vig" describes this "Edge" or "Advantage" the Casino has without the misunderstanding. This "Vig" is the mechanism the Casino uses to generate their guaranteed profit. 
    This is how the "Vig" of 16.67% is figured for Big Red. There are 6 chances of the 36 combination that will win. This means that 6 times will win, 30 times will lose out of a total of 36 events. Assuming someone is stupid enough to bet $1 on all 36 events, (at 4 to 1 odds) $24 would be won ($6 x $4 = $24) plus $6 would remain in hand. This would mean that one would have put a total of $36 at risk and end up with $30 ($24 + $6 = $30) of the total at risk. The casino would pocket the $6 difference! By taking the $6 of casino profit and dividing it by the total events (36) the .166666 or 16.67% Vig is determined.      
    This "Vig" percent is a tool used by the Casino to roughly figure the expected profit they should be making depending on the amount of action on a table. (If you see pit managers with pencil and paper, they are recording the average action on a table. They will also use this information to "rate" a player based on their average play. But I assure you that information is plugged into the "Vig" percent of expected profit.) 
    This would be similar to a guy holding a "card party" in his basement. He facilitates the game by providing the cards, chips, tables, food, and place. He wants a guaranteed way of payment for his service. He could do one of two things or, perhaps, both. One, he could charge a flat seat charge to all the players. Or two, he could take a percentage of the winning pots, say 10%. That 10% would be the Basement "Vig". Now this "Vig" does not influence the random distribution of cards, or the individual who wins or loses. What it does do is to lower the True Odds payoff for a winning hand. The better individual player still won, just not as much as if he did not have to contend with the Basement "Vig"! Does the Basement hold an "Edge" over the Players? This is a qualified Yes! The Basement holds the "Edge" in that the owner of the Basement is the only one who is guaranteed a Profit at the end of the night! The more tables he can set up, and the more winning pots he can take his "Vig", the more Profit he can expect. Does he hold this "Edge" over the individual player that will determine if he will win or lose? NO! He does not even play cards! Will the players calculate their betting patterns knowing that 10% of the pot is going to be missing if they win? Will I have to answer that?

    Let's get back to the craps table at a Casino. Craps is an game played by individuals in a possible group. Therefore, there is no collective pot for the House to collect their "Vig". As a result, the Casino will collect it's "Vig" from Each Individual Winning Bet. This is how it works using Big Red as the only bet: The Casino "Holds Back" $1 from what would be a True Odds Payoff on a winning $1 Big Red Bet. Understand that the Casino uses True Odds (5 to 1) when collecting losses (Collects $5), but only pays off a win using House Odds (4 to 1) (Pays a winner $4). The $1 difference is the "Edge"! To show you what the "Experts" mean when they say that the "Edge" is too high, I am going to send you to Planet X where Odds will always work out on time – NO Trends!

    Out of 36 combinations of numbers that a pair of Dice can produce on any given roll, 30 combinations will be non-7 producing numbers, and 6 combinations will produce the #7. This 30 combinations to 6 combinations ratio (30/6 = 5/1) is the same thing as saying that 5 combinations of non-#7 producing numbers will appear before a combination that adds up to the #7 appears. This means that on Planet X, in the Short-Term (this will be the same in our "Law of Averages" World in the Long-Term), the Casino will collect $5 on the 5 consecutive rolls of non-7 producing numbers. On the 6^th roll that produces the #7, they will pay the winner $4. Let’s see what this House "Edge" will do to a Player’s Bankroll of $7 if he makes a $1 Big Red Bet on every roll playing on Planet X.

    He starts with $7 in hand. At the end of the first #7 Cycle (The interval between #7s), he would lose $5. On the 6^th roll, he would win $4 leaving $6 in hand ($7 - $5 + $4 = $6) or ($1 in hand + $1 returned after the win + $4 = $6.) At the end of the second Cycle, he will lose $5. On the 6^th roll, he will win $4, now leaving only $5 in hand ($6 - $5 + $4 = $5). Since the third Cycle takes a loss of $5 before he can win $4 on the 6^th roll, he will run out of money on the 5^th roll! – GUARANTEED! The $1 the Casino "held back" will eat at his Bankroll at a rate of $1 per Cycle. No matter how much money he starts with, if he bets the same amount of money on every roll, at some point the $1 House "Edge" will eat up his Bankroll and any winnings he gains on the 6th roll. He is Guaranteed to go home a Loser!

Now if you think that I made a good case for the "Experts" telling you to avoid this Bet, - Please read on!

    Planet X would not be a good place to invest in a Casino! You see, all a Player has to figure out is to "Hold Back" a minimum of the first two bets after a #7 shows. At that time, he can start betting up to and including the 6^th roll. As long as he Stops Betting for a minimum of the next two rolls after a #7 shows, he will always go home a Winner! – GUARANTEED! (The Player Held Back a $2 guaranteed loss, now only spending $3, and the Casino only Held Back $1. The Casino will give the player $4 on the Win, leaving a $1 Gain in the Player’s favor for each 7 Cycle!) Once the Casinos could no longer use the money that Players lose to pay off a win and make their profit, they would run out of money and would have to shut down! The fact is that there could be no gambling on Planet X where everything is Perfect. All Players would either be Guaranteed to Lose, Guaranteed to Break Even, or Guaranteed to Win depending on the strategy they decided to use! On Planet X, the Casino has to depend on the complete stupidity of the Players to survive – Not on the House "Edge"!

*************

    Understanding how Planet X works where everything is perfect, what makes it possible for Players and Casinos to exist on our Not-so-Perfect Planet Earth? The reason is that Our Real World Not-So-Perfect Planet Earth offers an Acceptable Compromise of Both Worlds. For every Individual, Short-Term Player, there are Not-so-Perfect "Real World" Opportunities (No Guarantees) in form of Trends. Trends make it possible for the Smart, Short-Term Craps Player to go home a Winner. The Casino can stay in business because they benefit from a "Perfect World" Guaranteed Profit. This "Perfect" Profit is possible because they use House Odds to Pay winning Bets to all Gamblers, as a Group, over the Long-Term. Casinos being able to stay in business without gambling is important to all honest Players. Players need a Safe Legal, and Regulated environment to Gamble. The Back Alley is a Gamble in more ways than One!)

    Odds in the Short-Term will work different in our World. The #7s will bunch up or string out, but rarely come out on a perfect schedule of 5 losses to every win, as it does on Planet X. The name we have given this unexplained phenomena is a Trend. A Trend is a useful phenomenon to a Smart, Short-Term Player who is aware of the conditions that designate a Trend and has the knowledge to take advantage of the Opportunities they provide! Casinos have No "Edge" over these Opportunities, allowing you as an Individual, Short-Term Player to go home a Winner!

    You must understand that as an Individual, Short-Term Player you must be concerned about Trends. You will be a winner or a loser based on Trends, not Odds! If you use a method of Play that works on a Choppy Table or a Hot Roll (Betting Pass Line and Place Numbers) and you continue betting during a Cold Trend, - you will Lose! You will not lose because of the House "Edge," but because you used the wrong method of Play for that Situation! If you use Big Red = Big Buck$ strategy that was specifically designed for a Cold-Cool Trend and the Table "turns" Hot, exceeding the number of calculated rolls in a 7 Cycle, – you will lose for the same reason! Your challenge as a Smart Player will be to match up the right strategy with the right situation. Does this sound impossible? You may be surprised what you can do once you learn how to "Read a Table"!

    Trends are important to the Individual, Short-Term Gambler, but not important to the Casino. What is important to the Casino is that, given enough time (Long-Term), Odds will "Average Out" over the "Ups" and "Downs" of Trends and will "Work Perfect" just as the Law of Probability predicts! They will collect the $5 from all the losing numbers from all the Craps Players that bet on Big Red (use True Odds) and pay out $4 to all the winning Craps Players that bet on Big Red whenever the #7 appears (use House Odds). As each 7 Cycle "Averages Out," they will collect their Guaranteed $1 Profit for every $1 winning bet! The reason Odds only apply to the Casino is that the Casino is involved in every Roll, twenty-four hours a day, as long as they are in business! It is impossible for you as an individual player to be involved in every roll for that long! And even if you could place the same bet on every roll for that long, you now know that you would be a Guaranteed Loser! (Just like betting every roll on Planet X!)

    The House always having the "Edge" is the Truth but only a Half-Truth! The House Has the "Edge" because of the Perfect Profit over All Gamblers, as a Group, in the Long-Term because it takes that long to "Average" out to Perfect Odds, but the House Does not Have the "Edge" over you as an Individual, Short-Term Player because of Trends that Defy Perfect Odds!

All This, Just To Say that the "Experts" are Wrong to evaluate the value of a Bet that is made by You, a Short-Term, Trend Dependent Player, based on the House "Edge," which involves Long-Term Odds!

Just as a passing thought at the end of this pivotal subject: I wonder how the experts would tell you to bet if there were such a thing as "Disney Land Casinos" where the casino's income was generated solely by an admission fee, and they gave true odds on all the bets? (meaning that money would just be exchanged between winners and losers) Would the House Admission Fee "Edge" be a factor?

 

       To be able to use My Big Red Strategy with confidence (proper mindset), it is very important that you fully understand what House Edge is and why it should not influence your betting patterns. Have I made myself clear? 
If you need more time - take it! 
If I have convinced you - continue below! 
If not - Big Red will be a risky strategy (mindset)! Thanks, Larry 

Home   Craps Man

 

 

Lesson #2 Part 2

When playing the “Right Side” (Pass Line and Place Numbers) the #7 is a Thief. When playing Big Red it will be your Benefactor! 

I believe that Big Red is the Best Bet in the right situation, unlike the "Experts" that say this bet "Should never be made"! The dominant situation that this strategy will have value will be during a Cold Trend. Has Walking Away From or Pushing Through a Cold Trend been the only way you have handled this nemesis to the Right Better? If so, have I convinced you that there is a potential for "Gold in them thar Hills (or Valleys) of 7’$"? If so, I invite you to learn the simple mechanics of Big Red = Big Buck$ Strategy.

    Because Big Red is a one roll bet, it must be played with a "Pay-as-you-Go" Progression. This is in contrast to a "Paid-up-Front" Progression that is normally played on multi-roll bets. (I will contrast the difference as you continue.)
    To value a specific "Pay-as-you-Go" Progression, certain criteria must be carefully considered:
     What is the house odds payoff?
    Rate of Progression.
    How much is reasonable to invest before you stop betting? - Length of Progression.

    Because Big Red has payoff rate of (4  to 1) or (5 for 1), gave me a great deal of flexibility as I designed this unique progression. This could be considered a hybrid Martingale Progression. There will be six layers of bets, using a double up on the first four and and adding two units and four units to the last two bets in the progression. Because Most Casinos offer a one dollar minimum Bet in the horn, a universal Big Red Progression will look like this:  1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 10 - 12 and sometimes 14. You will not go beyond a 6 perhaps 7 count that would designate a "Short Table". This is the simple structure, the dollar amount can be added by using those numbers times the dollar unit amount you desire to use. This structure with the universal dollar unit amount and profit expected is given in the table below:

# of Bet	$ amount of Bet	$ Total in Bets	5 for 1 Odds (bet is down)	Profit
1	1 x $unit	Total of Bet 1	5 x Bet	5x bet 1 - Total Bet = 4$units
2	2 x $unit	Total of Bets 1,2	5 x Bet	5x Bet 2 - Total Bets = 7$units
3	4 x $unit	Total of Bets 1,2,3	5 x Bet	5x Bet 3 - Total Bets = 13$units
4	8 x $unit	Total of Bets 1,2,3,4	5 x Bet	5x Bet 4 - Total Bets = 25$units
5	8 x $unit + 2$units	Total of Bets 1,2,3,4,5	5 x Bet	5x Bet 5 - Total Bets = 25$units
6	8 x $unit + 4$units	Total of Bets 1,2,3,4,5,6	5 x Bet	5x Bet 6 - Total Bets = 23$units

Understand that the Dollar Unit amount will depend on your personal level of play. However, once you choose a Dollar Unit amount, It must stay the same throughout the Progression! I am going to give you a real dollar example using an arbitrary Dollar Unit amount of $10 provided in the chart below: 

# of Bet	$ amount of Bet	$ Total in Bets	Receive after win	Profit
1	$10	$10	$50	$40
2	$20	$30	$100	$70
3	$40	$70	$200	$130
4	$80	$150	$400	$250
5	$100	$250	$500	$250
6	$120	$370	$600	$230

You can see that any time a 7 shows in six consecutive rolls after you start the progression, you will receive back all the money you have played up to a win, plus a sizable profit.

If you are uneasy about using any progression, you maybe surprised to discover that every time you make a spread bet on the Place Line, you are indeed involved in a reverse progression! The difference being that you are putting the entire progression amount up front. A Point-7-Out would be just as devastating to a right side player as would be going pass the six layers of my Pay-as-you-Go Progression. 

The table below shows the comparison of the two progressions. This table would indicate what would happen on a "short table" where a 7 would show in any of 6 consecutive rolls. 
    In the blue section (across spread), I have chosen to use a simple scenario of any two place numbers resulting in a $90 win and any four place numbers resulting in a $70 win, with no pressing, and no removing of any bet after a win. In this example, you can see that it takes 5 paying numbers to "Progressively" pay for your $320 at risk. A 7 on the 6th roll would only produce a $50 gain for the $320 placed at risk. A 7 showing from the 1st to 5th roll would result in a loss! (Line away means it's gone bubba!) 
    Using Big Red Progression in the red section will net you a profit, and return all your money you had at risk, if a 7 shows in any one of the 6 consecutive rolls! You must remove the bet on a win to realize the total profit. 

Spread Bet Total of $320 at risk, up-front progression

Big Red Pay-as-you-Go Progression $370

#	Bet	Place #	Profit Loss	7-out	Profit Loss	# prog	at risk	Place#	Loss	7-out	Profit
4	$50	+$90	-$230	big red	-$320	1	$10	any	-$10	big red	+$40
5	$50	+$70	-$160	big red	-$230	2	$30	any	-$40	big red	+$70
6	$60	+$70	-$90	big red	-$160	3	$70	any	-$70	big red	+$130
8	$60	+$70	-$20	big red	-$90	4	$150	any	-$150	big red	+$250
9	$50	+$70	+$50	big red	-$20	5	$250	any	-$250	big red	+$250
10	$50	+$90	+$140	big red	+$50	6	$370	any	-$370	big red	+$230

Betting Big Red on a cold table takes a change in your mindset! Set in your mind that you are not betting a one roll bet! You are making a 6 roll bet! You will not lose one dollar until the after the 6th roll. Do not get discouraged and abandon this powerful cold table strategy if you should happen to go beyond the 6 roll progression. Remember the number of times that you lost all your place line bets on a Point-7-Out. This did not cause you to abandon your "right side" play! 

(Special Note: If you would rather play the Hop 7 or 3 way 7 and pick up the extra profit - just use the progression in multiples of 3. One progression unit to be placed on each combination. This can get confusing, but if you plan it out in advance and know how much to bet on each level, you should be OK. The reason I like Big Red is that it falls in line with the all important KISS principle: Keep It Simple Stupid!) 

I want to stress that Big Red = Big Buck$ is a Tool, that when used properly in the right situation, will enhance your chances for success – Not Guarantee your Success!  If you think that there is a Guaranteed "System" in Craps, I want to sell you a condo on the Mythical World on Planet X! However, if you understand that there will always be Risk but that Risk can be managed through the Power of Knowledge, I will welcome you to the Family of Big Red Players! If you do, you will have the Nay Sayers saying, "How did he turn a 7-Out into a "7-In"?  

If you are still a steadfast Don't player, consider This: When you play the Don't, line or box, you are fighting the very number you want to show on the come-out! If you get past that, you will be fighting the point number. If this is not bad enough, when you win, you will only win at even odds! Big Red is a Clean 6 roll bet at 4 to 1 odds! 

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #3
Combining 7-cycles with Big Red

The next 3 sets will be completed in this phase. 

You have noticed that while you were doing the last 6 sets, there were times when you became careless! The reason is because the element of risk was not introduced. I promise that this next phase will be much more exciting. Complete each set as normal, however, only circle the cycles that you know will be short. Take no action for the ones you are not sure of. As you make your selection, in your mind, you will be playing the Big Red = Big Buck Strategy! Now your success or failure will be based on the amount of money you end up with at the end of each set! At the end of each set you can figure out a true dollar amount this way:

This is using Big Red at the $1 progression amount, (you must understand the logic behind Big Red! For a review: go to Big Red)

For every prediction that was incorrect:  put minus $37

For every correct prediction: put the following $ amount depending on the number order when the #7 was rolled,

1, +$4

2, +$7

3, +$13

4, +$25

5, +$25

6, +$23

Simply add all the $ amounts up to determine if you had a winning or losing session (Set). The $ amount that you will use in real life "Craping" will be determined based on you risk tolerance and bankroll. However, this will give you a good indication to the amount of practice time that you require before you Risk your Hard Earned Money!

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #4
A comprehensive study of Key Indicators

Did you have the discipline to complete all 9 sets in Lesson #1? Your success is important to my success! Casino Craps is not some board game that you use "Funny Money!" If you are one who values your hard earned money, then you are one who values your practice time!  One major point that I agree with all the experts is that it takes discipline (I will go one step farther and say "a relaxed discipline"), to increase your chance for success. 

  You will discover that your understanding of Key Indicators will be an exciting Lesson as you develop your skill and set yourself free on a craps table. You will learn why it was important to understand 7-cycles and predicting short cycles (valuable information to know when to start Big Red, even on longer rolls!). 

Your learned ability to Read a Table goes beyond identifying short cycles as a cold table unfolds. I hope you understand that the style of play involved in Situational Craps totally revolves around the number 7! Identifying a short cycle is easy compared to identifying strong opportunities to pull your place bets down on a longer roll. However, the advantage of this skill is two fold: 

1) I do not know about you, but when I hear "7-out Line Away!", I do not see it as just the end of a game. I see it as my Money being swept away by the Dealer! Remember, the money you put at risk on the Place Line is still YOUR money until it is "Swept" away.

2) The dream of every player is to make money on a long roll, KNOW when it is time to pull down his place bets, and start betting for the 7 to show- - Thus maximizing his gain without a penny lost! (Boy will that make heads turn!)

    If this sounds impossible, let's take a world's view of predicting a winning event in random chance. STOCK Brokers do not think this skill is impossible! Weather Men do not think this skill is impossible! What makes this skill possible, is what is called "Key Indicators" associated with random chance. For a Stock Broker, what the Feds do with interest rates is a Key Indicator of future ups or downs in the market. How much money is spent during the Holidays is another Key Indicator. 
      No matter what you think about your local Weather Man, he is pretty good at predicting future events. Not only Weather Men, but farmers, sailors, and yes, even you use Key Indicators to predict future weather conditions. Are you going to be right all the time? No! But if you are enjoying nature and dark clouds start forming, perhaps you see some flashes in the distance, it might be time to head for shelter. The worst thing that could happen is you stay dry - Even if the rain did not come! (If you took your bets down after seeing a Key Indicator, the worst thing that could happen is that you would put your profit, that was on the place line, in your tray!) 

    Why is it necessary to know that we use Key Indicators in every day life to predict future events? Mindset! Mindset! Mindset!  Unless you are a professional player, Craps is not part of your "every day life". Because of this, you may view craps as a totally random experience totally subject to the "Law" of "Luck". But once you achieve the Mindset that random is random, be it in Stocks, Weather, or Craps; you will see the similarity and have the mindset to start looking for Key Indicators associated with the game of Craps. 

    The reason it was necessary to have the discipline to complete Lesson #1 was to convince yourself that there are periods of order in randomness! Also, you should be convinced that it is possible to predict a short cycle, and be right more times than you are wrong! You should have experienced a few times when you KNEW you were right beyond question! If you were relaxed, you knew when you were "In the Flow". You may have heard the expression "Playing in the Zone". This is the optimum state of Play! In fact, as you develop this state of play, you will be able to use it as an important "Key Indicator" to determine if you should be at the table or home!

    Here is the step by step to locating Key Indicators:

1) Print out enough charts for at least 15 sets so you will have enough for 5 set for this and the next 2 lessons. Chart   (use back2 button to get back)

2)   Simply keep rolling the dice until you have completed 5 sets. However, instead of the “X” for a non-7# you will write the actual number in the box. (In your head you can predict short cycles just to keep in practice, but that is not the focus with this exercise.)

3) After you are finished, mark a box around the 6 non #7 numbers for longer rolls and (all the numbers in a short cycle) just before a 7 shows. (From now on a short cycle will also be defined as ANY 6 or less numbers before a 7 shows - no matter how long the actual roll was!)

4) On a sheet of paper, write the numbers 2 - 12 going down the right side of the page. 

5) Of the six numbers that you have boxed in just before a 7 was rolled, put a mark next to the number that was rolled on the sheet of paper. This will tell you how many times a particular number was rolled just before a 7 for each set. Take that total number and write it like this - In (11) 22. The "In" is for inside the box, the "(11)" is the number rolled, and the "22" is the number of times that number show up in the box. (as an example)

6) For each number that has shown in the box, I want you to count how many times that number shows Outside the box and write that total number of times like this - Out (11) 5. (as an example) 

7) Now take the "In" number and place it over the "Out" number. In this example you will have In (11) 22 / Out (11) 5. By dividing 5 into 22 you will get a percentage of the number of times the 11 showed up within 6 rolls of the 7. In this example the 11 showed 4.4 times more in the box than outside the box. The higher the number, the stronger the key indicator.  

8) Do this for all 5 sets individually. To get a more accurate picture of key indicators add all like numbers in all the sets and find the percentage inside the box verses out side the box. (the more sets you do the more accurate you will be!)

9) A special note about the percentage of an event being useful information. I have said that you can not use Odds to determine when a number should be thrown. Less you think I am talking out of two sides of my mount, you must understand that odds are a set mathematical certainty of the times a number will show in the long term. However, there are no mathematical certainties of a number showing in an unexplained trend pattern. None the less, it happens!   

9) Remember, the higher the percent number the more reliable that number (or combination of numbers) is for a key indicator. However, it is also important not to get locked into certain numbers as an over all indicator. Sometimes different tables will give different numbers as key indicators. The value of this lesson is to raise your level of Table Awareness! As you approach each session, start looking for key indicators for that particular table. However, there do seem to be some universal indicators that I will test in my head (or stop betting) until I see patterns develop.  

10) It has been my experience that horn numbers and horn numbers in combination with the 4 or 10 have proven to be reliable key indicators. 

    Please do not confuse these Key Indicators with Superstition. You may think that the changing of the Stickman or throwing a die off the table could be put in the same class as a Key Indicator. But as for me, "If I can't Test it, I can't Trust it!" 

Come back when you have completed these 5 sets. At that time you can take a break from your sets and learn a powerful conservative money management strategy for "right side play".

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #5

Learn to Pay-4-It First!

This Strategy will set your Priorities in order!

Pay 4-it First!

PROTECTING your Bankroll must be your FIRST PRIORITY!

PROFIT must be your SECOND PRIORITY!

JUST HAVING FUN must be your LAST PRIORITY!

    Gamblers who think that making a Profit must be their first priority are the second biggest losers! They have dollar signs in their eyes that block their view of what is happening on the table. They will allow emotions to override discipline. They will keep pressing their bets, waiting for the big score, based on nothing more than a hunch. When they win, they will be the first to tell everyone how "Lucky" they are. When they lose, they will be mad, blaming their "Bad Luck" on the lousy Shooter or the changing of the Stickman. But they will never tell anybody how bad they are at understanding and using a sound money management strategy!

    The Gambler who sets Just Having Fun as his or her first priority is in it for the "Jazz". The Gambler that says he had fun, even though he lost all his money, is just plain nuts and has got to be the biggest loser! I assure you that the guy that walked out of the Casino with that loser’s money in his pocket understood the true meaning of Fun! This attitude makes that type of Gambler careless. Like the Profit Seekers, he thinks discipline and strategy is just for beginners and chickens; he thinks it only takes guts to be a winner. Trust me when I say that there is a huge difference between accepting a loss, while at the same time, Enjoying the Experience (knowing that you did your best), and having fun losing your money just to experience the "Jazz"!

    Protecting your Bankroll must be your First Priority! Once you firmly establish this as your first Priority, the other two Priorities will take care of themselves! This Strategy is primarily to protect your Place Number Bets on a "Short Table" (I define a "Short Table" as having from one to three paying bets out of the two to six Place Bets that you have made before a 7-Out.). Flat Bets and One Roll Bets would have to utilize a "Negative Progression" to give you the best opportunity to protect these Bets, and are not covered in "Pay-4it-First". However, if the majority of your Bankroll is dedicated to Place Number Bets, this Basic Strategy will be of great Benefit! You will never be able to predict a Hot Roll. However, using this strategy will keep you in the game, perhaps, long enough to be in the position to take full advantage of a Hot Roll! The Making a Profit and the Having Fun Priorities will have been fulfilled! No it will not work on an extended Cold Table with little or no payoffs; but because you have developed the discipline to use a strategy and you have studied 7-cycles and Key Indicators, you will know when it is time to stop betting.  Knowledge is Power!

Let's get started!

    To make a profit as a Right Player using Place Numbers you must first return your initial investment. What you are about to learn is a simple Money Management Strategy that will enable you to pay for (get back) and gain a small profit on all your set up bets on Two, Four or all Six Place Numbers in just One, Two or Three paying hits. The money remaining on all bets after they have been "Paid-4" is pure profit and will generate pure profit!

    The structure used in this strategy will only work when applied to each Individual Set of Place Bet "Pair Numbers". Pair Numbers will Pay the same Odds: (6 , 8) , (5 , 9) & (4 , 10). All Bets involving each Set must have enough money placed on each Number so that the amount on each Number can be divided in half without going below the minimum. This means that you can place an equal Bet on each Number for each Set from Two Times the Minimum all the way up to and including the Maximum allowed. As soon as any one of the two Set Numbers that you have bets on is rolled $–$ that set will be Paid-4!

    The following will be an attempt to put this structure in real numbers. I am going to use the Pair Number Set of (6 , 8) for this illustration. The arbitrary amount of money I have selected for each bet in this Set is $12. I want to show you how valuable this strategy is on a Short Table (A short table can include many numbers being rolled but only one or two are Paying Numbers per Set.) where you have a Point - #6 – 7-Out roll. I am going to compare two Common Strategies: Press the First Hit Strategy, and Same Bet on the First Hit Strategy, with Being able to Pay-4 the Set on the First Hit Strategy.

• If you Press the First Win in this example you will Lose $36. You start with $24 in Play. The #6 will produce $14. At this point you have a total of $38 of Your Money. If you Press the #6 you will have $36 in Play ($12 on the #8 and $24 on the #6) and you will keep the $2 difference. When the #7 shows on the third roll, you will end up with $2 in hand ($22 short of your set up Bet) and lose the $36 left in Play!

• If you use the Same Bet option you will Lose $24. You start with $24 in Play. The #6 will produce $14. At this point you have a total of $38 of Your Money. By taking the Same Bet option you will leave the $24 in Play ($12 on both #’s 6 & 8) and keep the $14. When the #7 shows, you will end up with $14 ($10 short of your set up Bet) and lose the $24 left in Play!

• By using the Pay-4-It Strategy you will Lose $12 but you will end up with a $2 Profit! You start with $24 in Play. The #6 will produce $14. Now you have a total of $38 of Your Money. By simply instructing the Dealer to Bring Down the #6 and Split the #8 with #6 you have locked in a Win on this first paying Hit! You will take the $14 and by bringing the $12 bet on the #6 Down you will have a total of $26 in hand with $12 ($6 on both #’s 6 & 8) left in Action. When the #7 shows, you will lose the $12, but you will have your total $24 Set Up Bet Returned and will have made a $2 Profit! The more money you risk the more protection this Strategy provides on a Short Table, while at the same time, it will return a higher Profit.

First Hit – Down – Split" Strategy will work the same way if you use the (5 – 9) Set and, or the (4 – 10) Set. The higher risk on these Sets will reflect a higher Profit on the First Hit Number in each Set. The First Hit of a #5 or #9 will return your original Bet for that Set plus $2 in hand profit for every $5 Bet on the Hit Number. The First Hit on a #4 or #10 will return your original Bet for that Set plus $4 in hand profit for every $5 Bet on the Hit Number. Just remember that if you Bet more than $20 on each number in the (4 – 10) Set, it will be better to pay the 5% Buy Fee and get the True Odds of $2 for every $1 bet. If your two equal individual Bets for this Set are less than $40 ea., your Buy Fee for the Non-Hit Number will be Returned after the Split. If your Bet is more than $40 ea., your Buy Fee for both numbers will be Paid-4 after the Split.

    Now that you can see how this Strategy works on a Short Table for one Set, understand that all three Sets can be played at one time but each Set must be treated individually. On any given First Hit for an individual Set, you will be in a "Paid-4" position to take full advantage of Pure Profit Payoffs, if that sequence of rolls should turn "Hot".

    Once you are in a Paid-4 position you will have several options available to increase your Profit if any one of those Set Numbers hit again. These options will be an expression of your understanding of the Flow of Trends and Risk Tolerance. The important thing to remember is that this is the time to relax and Play Smart. Trends work on the past history of the last few shooters. Roulette Players have the advantage of a Number Board that records the past history of Trends. Baccarat Players are given Cards to help them keep track of Trends. However, as a Craps Player, you must keep track of Trends in your head! Hot trends and Choppy Trends are real moneymakers if you develop the discipline to always use this Strategy for your Place Number Bets. It will be the extended Cold Trend that you will have to understand how to Play! Fortunately, a Cold Trend is the easiest to recognize. If you have a hard time recognizing a Cold Trend until you run out of money and feel stupid, I assure you that the reactions of other Players will give you a strong indication that this is a good time to change the way you have been betting! The key is to Pay Attention to both the numbers that are thrown and the reaction of other Players.

    If you find yourself in a Cold Trend Situation, here are some options that you can think about using:

    1) With a large enough Bankroll, you may be able to Push Through a Cold Trend. There will be times that a Shooter will surprise everyone by having a Hot Roll in the middle of a Cold Trend. If this happens you should make enough profit to cover your losses. Just understand that this is a risky option in that I have personally witnessed a three hour Cold Trend on one Table. Besides, your objective is to make a profit, not just cover your losses! Lets check out some other options.

    2) Simply stop Betting! Your first response will be to leave that Table and start playing on another one. Don’t! If you leave to go to another Table you may just walk into another Cold Trend! What is more important is that you will have to start all over again to understand the Flow of that Table. The only reason that you should leave a Table is when you are finished playing Craps. This will be the time for your "Developed Patience" to Kick In! Keep in mind that Money Not put at Risk is money Not Lost! Understand that Trends go in cycles and in time it will turn around and you will have a reasonable Bankroll to take advantage of the changing Situation. By paying attention you may notice that at least one or two Paying Hits per given Set are being rolled before a 7-Out occurs. If this is happening you can still make money by using the third option.

    3) Take one or two Hits and Pull all your Bets Down. If a Hit does not occur in two or three Rolls, still take your Bets Down. An overlooked way to take a "Short Hit" is to Place your Bets Before a Come-Out and "Turn them On". Point Numbers can be turned into Paying Hit Numbers! Yes, you can get burned if a 7 is rolled during the Come-Out but you can get burned on a Point – 7-Out if you waited until after the Come-Out! Approach this option with caution. However if you only risk a few rolls before bringing your bets down you should be OK.

    Now that we have "Pushed Through" the Options on a Cold Trend, let’s see how you can turn your Paid-4 Set or Sets into more Profit on longer rolls. The charts below illustrate the comparative payoff difference of three After-Paid-4 Options. I will be using the same (6, 8 set) now acting as independent numbers. You must understand that at the time that a Set becomes Paid-4, you must treat each number, that made up that Set, individually. Both numbers are acting as if you just Placed a Bet on each one. The difference will be that the money used to make these Bets is pure profit without diminishing your original Bankroll. 

The large print above each option is the order of progression after the 6 or 8 has been hit.

The first line in each column in the charts below will always start with the setup for the 1^st hit for each number. For this example, I will assume that the #6 is the number we are Charting.

The second line is the $ amount for the Bet on #6 for that setup. You will notice that the 1^st Setup Bet for all Options will be one half of the original Bet made for the Set. In this example, $12 was split, living $6 on the #6.

The third line represents the $ amount in Profit if you were to take the #6 Down before any result. This amount will include the $2 in-hand Profit taken on the Set Hit, but it will not include the $6 on the #8.

The fourth line represents the $ amount of in-hand Profit if a 7-Out were rolled before a hit.

The fifth line represents the $ amount of a hit if the #6 were to be rolled.

The sixth line in the direction given to the Dealer for the next setup, after a hit.

   Very few Players ever take the time to chart out their Betting Options before they are in the "Heat of Play". However, being able to Play Craps instead of Craps Playing You means being prepared with all the information that will help you to Play Smart! It is worth your time to study these Charts and use your computer to practice the different options. I also recommend Charting out the amount of money that you intend to play with. You may even find a different option that better fits your risk tolerance. For example chart out what would happen if you used a common Option of "1^st hit – Same Bet – 2^nd hit – Press 1 unit – 3^rd hit – Press 1 unit – until Down or 7-Out."

    Paying for your Set is the most important element involved in this Strategy. Using the Fundamental Sequence of "First Hit – Down – Split" is Key to Protecting your Bankroll. Understand that there is no right or wrong After- Paid-4 Option that you elect to use to increase your Profit. It is important to be flexible. As you assess the flow of Numbers within a Trend, use an Option that, in your judgment, will return the most Profit. Your assessment must not be based on what you think should happen but what is happening! Understand that your call is a Judgment, but that is the best we have in Random Chance. A Money Manager will use his Judgment, based on Trends, to determine which stocks will make a Profit in the future. They do not depend on "Luck" to make this selection! To be successful, they must depend on experience and current information to Predict future results. Results in Craps will happen in minutes and sometimes seconds. Results in the Stock Market may take days or months. Craps – Stocks, it’s all Random Chance! Practicing on your Computer will give you experience, and paying attention will give you the information you will need to make the best Judgment you can. Sometimes you will be right, and, sometimes, you will be wrong! Your challenge will be to keep practicing until you are Right more times than you are Wrong! Caution: Before you use this method of play on an on-line Casino - Make sure the software will let you take bets down! If you are not sure - just ask!

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #6

Pulling down Bets

Next 5 sets

During the next five sets, I want you to predict a six roll end to a longer cycle.

    Stop giving your standing place bets profit away at the end of a long roll. Use this time to practice using Key Indicators to predict the end of a roll that exceeds 6 numbers. Keep track of the number of times you saved and added to your bankroll by being able to pull your bets down in time. Understand that if you have 4 inside, paid for, place numbers, it will take 4 paying numbers with no pressing (more if the pressed number does not hit) just to equal the amount of profit you pulled down! Pulling down in time is like winning a bet! 

    Being able to consistently predict a six roll end to a long cycle is going to take time. Your first response will be to use every Key Indicator as a sign to pull your place bets. Understand that there will be no harm done if you just stop betting. You may not make as much as if you left you bets in place, but the money you put in your tray - is your money! Only when you "see the clouds forming" The Weather Man Effect (Strong opportunity with Key Indicators) will it be time to pull your place bets. A relaxed concentration will once again be the key to your success! 

    For these 5 sets I want you to simply indicate when a six roll end is about to happen. You will do this by recording the normal 7-cycles. Pay attention as you watch for cycles to exceed 6 rolls. At that time, start to look for key indicators that you believe will result in no more than a 6 roll end to that cycle. Put and X in the box (indicator) that you believe will produce the end of that cycle. 
    Continue recording that cycle. Only two thing will happen:
    1) If a 7 shows before the 6th roll - mark a Yes at the end of that cycle. Know that you made money by pulling your bets. 
    2) If you exceed the six rolls - well everything was not lost. You may not have made money but the money that could have been lost is now in your tray. 

    Come back when you have completed these 5 sets. When you return, it will be time to combine the strategies and play the situation!   

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #7
Combine What you have Learned and start playing the Situation!

During this last 5 set lesson you are going to combine the knowledge you have gained and start playing the situation as it unfolds.  

    1) When you KNOW a cold trend is developing, circle any one of the following rolls that you KNOW is going to be a short cycle. If you start a cycle and your Knower tells you that you are wrong - put an X in the next box to indicate that you stopped "betting". Understand that Big Red is an expensive bet if you are wrong! It is better to stop the progression, suck up the loss to that point, than to lose the total progression. I do not recommend this option to often because it may lead to indecision. Just know that you are free to use that option. You must learn to Trust your KNOWER! (The more experience you gain, the more you will understand what I am talking about concerning your Knower. But once that "something inside you clicks" you will know what it means to be in control!)

    2) As mentioned in Lesson #6, being able to consistently predict a six roll end to a long cycle is going to take time. Your first response will be to use every Key Indicator as a sign to pull your place bets. Understand that there will be no harm done if you just stop betting. You may not make as much as if you left your bets in place, but the money you put in your tray - is your money! However, as your confidence grows, you will want to take advantage of the "pending" 7 by switching to the Big Red Strategy. At first, be patient with this switch over. Only when you "see the clouds forming" The Weather Man Effect (Strong opportunity with Key Indicators) will it be time to switch over. However, practice in your head. By doing this you will develop your KNOWER. As you gain experience, you will know when to exercise the four options: 
    1) Leave your bets on knowing it is a long roll. (you do not trust the Key Indicator or there were none.)
    2) Pull your place bets after a Key Indicator and stop betting until the next cycle begins.
    3) Pull your place bets after a Key Indicator, Switch to Big Red and take advantage of the 7 showing in the next 6 rolls.
    4) If you know that you are involved in a cold trend (short cycles of under 6 rolls), Start your Big Red Progression.
    

Important: Do not feel that you have to play each cycle - or every shooter! Trust your knower - Even if that means you KNOW you are not sure what will happen - Just hold back. Let the game come to you!

For these last five sets, circle a Key Indicator, (if there is one) and by that Circle put the number 2, 3 depending on the option you want to use in your head. No action for a cycle you chose to play is assumed to be option 1. For a short cycle on cold trend just put number 4 when you start the progression. At the end of the Cycle that you played, write YES if you chose the correct option, or write NO if you were wrong.

    At the end of these 15 sets, you will know if you need more set time or the time has come to combine actual strategy with the knowledge of Reading a Table. 

    Once you take your learned skill to the Casino, you will find that reading a table can be more than watching trends. Pay close attention to the mood of the table! The actions of the other players will give you a good clue to how the trends are unfolding.

    I hope you can see that the simple structure of Pay-4-It First and Big Red = Big Buck$ was tailor made to produce the most profit for money at risk when playing 7-Cycles. - The pure game of Craps! However, that is not to say that you can not use your favorite "right" or "wrong" (I hate those terms!) Strategies as you read the table and play the Situation. I have had many players continue to use the "Don'ts" with much success with the unique understanding of 7-cycles. Below is just one example from comments sent to me by Vic:

Date/Time of Posting: Apr 12 2001 / 17:52:10
userid = ahcraps
name = Vic/shooter57
where = canada
replyemail = yzarnold@sprint.ca
reply = yes
question = yes

comments = I have been playing craps for a long time and became a DP bettor long ago. My method was to find the coldest table I could find in the casino. My play was bet DP for 3 shooters /rest make some place bets if the shooter threw some numbers go back to DP for 2 shooters rest again for 2 players then back again to 3 on the DP. I found this method to work very well and it happened quite naturally without much thought on my part. After doing the 7-cycle sets I began to see why this might have occurred plus adding big red which grabbed my interest right from the beginning it has to be the ultimate dark side wager. I would like to try lesson 2 as you say knowledge is power. THANKS VIC

    If you are one who like to use the passline bet, there is no problem as long as you budget your bankroll for the additional bets. 

    Make a special note if you are at some point playing the place number bet sets. Doing the 7-cycles exercises you did not think about the passes and no passes. But as you have seen, just because you are involved in a come-out it does not mean that a 7 will show. The fact is for a 7 to show on the first roll of a come-out - it will have to be back to back. Yes, it will happen but not as many times as a point number being established. The casino thinks it is doing you a favor by auto turning your place bets OFF. (Or are they?) By paying attention to short 7-cycles you will know when to leave your place bets ON during a come-out. Just remember - Point Numbers are paying numbers IF you place bets are left ON! 

Home   Craps Man

Lesson # 8
Beat the Choppy Table!

    As you have witnessed in the last lesson, the choppy table has the distinct ability to make you lose confidence in your "Knower". This lesson is designed to correct any lost confidence you have experienced!  

    The choppy table is by far the most common situation you will run into on a craps table. It is characterized by one to three short 7-cyles followed by at least one longer cycle of 8 numbers or more (or any combination of short and long cycles alternating). This situation is hard to play because there seems to be no consistent rhythm to base a right side or dark side betting strategy. I have spent hundreds of hours trying to turn this frustrating situation into a positive winning situation. The following is the best approach I have found. First I describe a set basic plug-in betting pattern that will work "most of the time". However, you must never lose your concentration as you look for key indicators that will give you better betting opportunities. Remember, as an accomplished Situational Player, you must be able to react as the situation dictates. Only you will determine your personal level of play based on the time you allow to practice!

    Once you find yourself in a Choppy Situation, you Must Assume you are in a short cycle situation and bet accordingly. After a 7 shows, begin betting the six progression on Big Red. By doing this, you will capture all the short cycle wins in the "Chop". Continue doing this after each 7. At the time you exceed the 6 rolls in the progression, on the 7th roll you will place a bet on all the inside numbers so that one hit on any of the 4 numbers will be large enough to recover your progression loss. (amounts are given below) After a place number hits, you will pull all the bets down to a minimum depending on your level of play. At that time you will let that cycle run out with the minimum bets in place. Understand that you are dealing with 7-cycles. This means that if the 7th roll happens to occur during a come-out, still make the place bets and turn the bets ON! This is the basic betting structure that will work most of the time. Let's analyze it to see why it works.  

    Most players get hammered on a choppy table because they continue using a right side betting pattern during the short cycles. There is just enough longer cycles for them to recover a portion of their loss and they just hang in there waiting for that hot roll or they run out of money. Because you now understand the 4 to 1 advantage of Big Red, you will be making money during the short cycles while the rest of the table is moaning and groaning about their "Bad Luck"! At the time you have exhausted your preplanned Big Red progression you can assume that you are locked into a longer cycle. The risk you take by placing the inside numbers is minimal. You will have 4 numbers working for you to recover your loss on the progression. (There is one exception to this place bet on the 7th roll - If the key indicators during the 6 rolls show a strong indication for a 7 to show - keep progressing beyond the 6th roll for at least 2 or 3 more rolls!) Yes, the 7 can show on the 7th roll but it is a manageable risk, (Look at your past recorded records, or check the Wincraps stats and you will see what I am talking about). If one of the 4 place numbers hit, you will maintain a winning situation by pulling down your bets to a minimum. You are now in a paid for position to take advantage of a long roll to increase your profit!  

    Let's look at the minimum bankroll you will need to play this strategy. More about bankroll is explained in lesson #.9 So if what I say does not make sense, just refer to it now. Minimum bankroll is based on worst case scenario. As this example unfolds, I will be using the minimum $1 Beg Red progression. Just understand that the relationship to the Big Red progression and place bets are directly related, and can be increased in proportion.  Once you evaluate the table to be choppy and a 7 shows, you start the progression: $1, $2, $4, $8, $10, and $12. If it goes to the 6th roll and you lose, you stop betting Big Red for a total of $37 invested. For the next roll you place $45 5/9 and $48 6/8 for a total of $186. The absolute bottom minimum Bankroll you will need is $37 for the progression and $186 for the place bets for a total of $223 or $225 to round it off. 

(Special note:  An easy way to figure needed bankroll is to multiply the starting dollar amount of Big Red Progression by $225. For example if you start with a $5 progression, your needed bankroll would be $1125)

    After losing the progression and placing the inside, only three things can happen:

    1. A 7 will show, in which case, if that was your minimum bankroll for that session, walk! If you brought $450 and stayed at the $1 progression level, you have another shot!

    2. A place paying number will show. (this will happen most of the time) This will be the result:

        a) If 5/9 hit you win $63.
        b) if 6/8 hit you win $56.

      Because you are in an unstable situation, you do not want to leave the majority of your bankroll exposed to the 7. To re-establish your bankroll and make a modest profit, you must pull the 5/9 down to $5 and the 6/8 to $6. (At higher bankroll levels this figure would be different. For example, if you started with a $2 Big Red progression, your min. bankroll would be $450, place bets would be $90  5/9 and $96  6/8 and would be pulled down to $10 5/9 and $12  6/8. Just keep the same proportion! )  With this in mind, let's see how you faired on the 7th roll. Say the 5 or 9 hit for this example. You take the $63 win (paying for the lost progression) . By bringing down your bets to the $5 and $6 level you return $164 of your bankroll to your rack. When you add the $63 to $164 you will have returned $227 of your bankroll and still have $22 working on the place numbers to take advantage of an anticipated longer roll! (you will have $221 returned to your rack if the 6 or 8 shows)

    At any time that 7-cycle ends, you assume a short roll on the next cycle and start all over again.

    3. The last option that can happen is the 4, 10 or horn number can show. This is where your knowledge of Key Indicators is going to show! If you have experienced these numbers as key indicators - the word is caution! If you have any doubt that the next number will be a paying number it is better to pull your line down - Even if you were wrong and a 7 did not show - you have the majority of your bankroll intact! If you are convinced that a 7 will show in the next few rolls - start the Big Red progression and attempt to recover some of the loss through a 7 win. The worst that can happen is you suck up the $37 loss if you take no action or you lose another $37 if you were wrong to start the progression. At that point you still have $157 of your bankroll to work with. Wait for a strong short cycle to start your progression again or use pay-4-it if you are on a middle to long cycle trend. 

    The exciting thing about Situational Craps is that you are in Control! The key words that you must develop through practice are: 
1. Concentration.   2. Focus  3. Relaxed concentration and focus! Listen to the rhythm - If points are being established - bet place bets during the come-out for one or two hits and remove. Be flexible! 

    Set up wincraps with the proper bankroll (work out different bankrolls that you would feel comfortable with and play. As you practice use different options and experiment. Learn to trust your hard worked knowledge!

Home   Craps Man

Lesson #9

Tracking 7-Cycles and Shooters

Using Chips and or Letters

The day will come when the physical act of tracking will not be necessary- you will just Know what is happening. However, gaining full table awareness will take time. In the mean while, it will be worth your time to learn one or more of these easy chip or paper shorthand tracking methods.

Special note: Thanks to my web buddy and Sit-Craps family member, Free4 (linaway) for bringing a physical form of casino tracking to my attention. I welcome all suggestions to make this training room the most informative on the web or hard copy!

Tracking must remain simple. The action on a live table can get hectic at times. You do not want to become so involved in tracking that you lose the "feel of the table". The following is a list of standard chip colors and what they mean:

Chip tracking  7-cycles:

1. White Chip - any short cycle (6 rolls or less) 

2. Dollar Slot Coin - medium cycle ( 12 rolls or less) 

3. Red Chip - long cycle (over 12 rolls) 

Because of the potential cost (in non playable chips) chip tracking should be limited to 7-cycles and simple rate tracking shooters. 

Chip tracking 7-cycles

The first thing you do when you get to the casino is to stop by a $1 slot machine (or cage) and get at least 10 coins and put them in your pocket. Find an opening at the craps table. Make sure that you add an extra $35 to your play bankroll for tracking. When you buy-in ask the dealer to give you 20 white chips. (They will always give you more than enough red chips.) Usually your tray will have 2 chip troughs or slots. Take 3 or 4 coins out of your pocket (the rest can be used as needed) and place them in the bottom (closest to you) slot to the far right. When the dealer gives you your chips, put your playing bankroll in the top trough and put the 10 white chips and 5 red chips next to the coins in the bottom trough on the far right. 

Now you are set up to start tracking. In this type of tracking, player position is not important. Wait for the next 7 to show. (If there is a come-out and you are not sure if a point was made or a 7 out occurred - just ask. If a point was made, wait for the 7 to show before you start counting. 

This type of tracking is pretty straight forward. Start counting the next roll after a 7 shows. If 6 or under rolls - put a white chip to the far left in the bottom trough. All appropriate color chips that represents the three type of cycles will be placed next to each other in order from left to right. It will not take long to see cycle patterns to develop. 

Here is an example of the color patterns that will show for the following series of rolls.

5,7,8,8,8,9,10,2,7,3,3,9,4,10,8,6,8,9,7,5,6,6,6,2,3,8,9,5,10,4,8,5,4,6,7,7,4,7

Exercise:

Get some poker chips (you can substitute $1 coins for blue poker chips). Make some sort of trough to hold the chips. Open your craps computer program and start rolling. As you mentally keep track of the 7-cycles, place the colored chips in the proper location. After a time that you start to feel yourself "getting in the flow", Start to predict a length of cycle by placing the appropriate "predicted" color chip Flat next to the last roll. If you are correct, stand it up - if not, get the correct one, (note it is ok to feel stupid!)  With this practice, you will be able to select the appropriate strategy to use for the up coming cycle. Practice this exercise until you can move the appropriate color chip in it's proper place with seamless movement. The only way the players are going to know what your are doing (outside of seeing you use slot coins!) is to see the color patterns develop. At which time I hope you mention my site!

Chip tracking Shooters

Tracking shooters can get more involved than just 7-cycles. However, if you are a setter, you will want to know the appropriate strategy to use for a given shooter.  

Total tracking of a shooter involves the players short, medium and long 7-cycles, points made, "trash" and place numbers produced, and moving on to the next shooter. Because one shooter can produce all three 7-cycles ( the 7 occurring during a come-out does not affect the status of the shooter) plus the other variables makes total chip tracking too complicated. To simplify this type of track, you will have to evaluate each shooter and rate him accordingly. 

Free4 has shared his method of group shooter tracking. The following is taken from the post he made on the members message board. I felt it deserved permanent status in this training room! 

Visited extensively with Larry regarding the following concept. He feels as I do, the concept has value. In no way does it interfere with basics of 7 cycles. I will attempt to explain the simplicity of the "Tracking" concept as briefly as possible.

Being of short memory myself, my son and I decided we needed a simple method of tracking cycles during a game. Pencil and paper came to mind, which is okay, however, on a crowded table, that's an encumbrance. We decided that rather than record every throw in each shooters roll, we would use our chip tray as a method of identifying the table cycles [long or short].

To our amazement, this turned out to be very effective and gave us a ready reference as to what took place on the table back when. Where before, we were reacting to the old gut feeling, which sometimes was wrong, we now had a visual prompt telling us what actually happened on every shooter. We can now marry current situation activity to recorded past activity. This helps us in making a more intelligent decision as to what to do at the current point in time.

Just like you did following Larry's cycles in practice sessions, continue to do so, the only difference is that you are using chips to mark indicators instead of a computer worksheet. Do not count non-shooting players, only those that toss the dice. Not looking for human element here but you need toss results to mark the length of a roll. [long or short]

Larry maintains if you can't test it, don't trust it. Words of wisdom. Soooooo we put this concept out to a couple of web buddies, [shooter 57 and 6n8]. Both after several real live sessions report that they had good results from using this method of tracking.

Shooter 57 claims he got a 75% return on all his speculations with the tracking method in force. He says he has never gotten such positive results from any method he has ever tried or any one else he knows of. 57 has been at the game for better than 20 years and his friends claim he has killer instincts on calling the situation. He also said laughingly, with these kind of results, I wonder if this is legal. 6n8 has been at it for about 10 years and like most of us is looking for the ultimate game approach. He has experience but lacks confidence in his abilities. This site should fulfill those needs.

Here we go:
After completion of a shoot, place a white or red chip in your tray indicating the roll length. Do so for every shooter. As the chips build in your tray, you see the trend of the cycles forming. See example of shooters by groups of 3 each for simplification. White = short roll 6 or less or , Red = long roll 7 or more . Read left to right as shooter 1,2,3....4,.5.6.....7,8,9......etc.. You can use pit crew and table addresses as starting or reference points.

(Note that he does not talk about how to separate the groups. I recommend using $1 coins from a slot machine. If he has a better idea I will post it.) 

................. This is representative of 3 groups of 3 shooter each. Now lets show a trend shift in the cycles as chip colors change.

................... You can instantly see [that of 18 shooters]
the cycles and their trend shift. To keep number of chips allocated to [abacus like] tray at minimum, when you go full circle on table and back to the first shooter, simply change out or not as roll length requires. You now have visual indicators as to what has taken place which allows you to maintain even better focus on your game and spotting Larry's mentioned indicators. For graphics and a detailed explanation of tracking concept, go to my article at John Rudden's   http://www.starchip.com/crapspit.htm . In L/H column, click on data base, on far right hand side of data base pages, scroll down to Craps Philosophy?. Click on article titled Craps Logic. Scroll to just below 3RD Observation and you will find items describing concept with graphics called Tic-Tac-Toe. Hope you find concept as lucrative as have others. 

After talking it over with Free4 (linaway) and getting some feedback from other members, I would like to expand on linaway's method of tracking. Below is a way for single tracking a shooter and gaining cycle information per shooter. 

As with the method above, I use the same color chip code.

1. White Chip - Not a setter, short rolls - possible Big Red

2. Red Chip - Is a setter or at least has constant medium to long rolls with points made. Good for passline and place bets.

3. Dollar Slot Coin - Used to separate shooters.

Set your tray up as tracking 7-cycles with the chips on the right side of the bottom trough.

It is going to be important to keep track of the movement of players! This is the hardest part in this type of tracking. Players will come and go, change positions or decide not to shoot if he felt he looked stupid on his first attempt. For you get an accurate feel for a shooter you will have to remember his position, and something unique that sets him apart - shirt color - hair - short - tall, etc, and of course the position of your chips from left to right.  This type (chip tracking) is best served when the table has no more than 8 players. Unless you get really good, a full table will end up to be a confusing mess! 

Start your tracking at a known point on the table. The best way is to start with the first slot next to a casino worker. Any position  marked on the picture below will do fine. You may have to wait for a shooter to get the dice, but just pick the nearest position to where the dice are being rotated. 

If you are a setter, you know what to look for and rate him accordingly. I am going to give you a series of shooter's rolls and track them. Understand that this type of demonstration will not show the human aspect which may influence your individual rating for that shooter.

shooter #1      7,     4,    2,   8,    7
                                     c/p                  out

shooter #2      5,     6,    8,   5,    9,    12,     10,      4,      9,    7,    2,    4,        7
                          c/p                       p      c/p                                           p                         c/p       out

tracking both shooters:

   far left          

If you do not mind using up chips, and there are just a few players to keep track of, you can chart using the color chip reference for 7-cycles per player (in-between the coins) However, you could not track medium cycles due to using the coins to separate shooters. The above track  would look like this:

far left     This would indicate that he had a long roll and 7nd on one of his continuing come-outs and 7nd out in a short roll. Each chip for this example and the one below would represent a point was made but only if a 7 was rolled during that continuing come-out. Unless you used another color chip, all points made and new ones established during a continuing come-out would just be grouped in a short or long cycle. You can now see how involved this can get. 

It is also possible that a shooter could have 2 or 3 short cycles and a long one and end with a short but overall he was a good shooter. This would look like:

Letter total Tracking

Chip tracking is a good method, however, it has it's limits. It is a temporary method. You must bring down the chips after about 8 or 9 shooters. Therefore you have no way to study out strategies that would work if you ever see those sequences again. Because of the space and number of chip constraints, you are limited to the information you can collect. I developed a simple shorthand paper method of tracking shooters that solves these two problems.  

Below is a sample of a 1/4 page chart that you can print Hear The return button is in the middle of the page! 

You will get 4 charts per page. Just copy or print as many as you want and cut each page in half both ways. There are several ways you can make little books from these 1/4 pages. The easiest way is to cut the cardboard back off a notebook to the size of the 1/4 sheet. Stack as many charts as you can with the cardboard as the back and staple either across the top or left side. This size will fit in your back pocket. 

If you printed a copy let's look at it or follow me from the one below. You will notice of the top S, M, L, and P. These will be your shorthand symbols for Short, Medium, Long rolls and the P is for the time he makes his point.  Below the letters are 7 rows of dashes followed by id. On each line, just before the dashes, you will put the number of the shooter you are tracking. Each shooter will have his individual number. If a player leaves, you will cross out that number not to be use for that session. The dashes are where you will place the letters depending on his action. The id gives you room to place a small reminder of the shooter - Perhaps the color of his shirt, or something distinctive about that individual. This information will help you identify that shooter until you set him to memory. 

Follow me as I track 2 shooters below:

Shooter #1:   7, 5, 2, 4, 8, 5, 11, 3, 7, 7, 6, 8, 4,  7

Shooter #2:   8, 6, 7  

               AhCraps Tracking       
               www.ahcraps.com              

            S short   M medium   L long  P point   

1  S P M S S L id  red hair

                    2 S __ __ __ __   id  wt shirt glasses    

          __ __ __ __ __ _  id___________    

       __ __ __ __ __ __  id___________    

         __ __ __ __ __ __  id___________    

            __ __ __ __ __ __  id___________        

           __ __ __ __ __ __  id___________      

It is going to be important that you take your time to learn to read the shooters action. Let's look at shooter's #1 action. 

Shooter #1:   7, 5, 2, 4, 8, 5, 11, 3, 7, 7, 6, 8, 4, 7   represented: S P M S S L

The first S is for the 7 during the come-out

The P is for making his point #5

The M is for making a 7 (during his continuing come-out) in 8 rolls

The next S is for the double up 7 during the come-out

The next S is for a short roll of point 8, 4, 7

The L indicates a total roll of over 12 numbers - in this case 14.  

(note: if there is not enough dashes on one line, just go to the next one - hot roll!)

Just think, all that information about that shooter wrapped up in six letters! In two or three shoots you are going to get a handle of what this guy is capable of throwing.   

The second shooter just had a bad roll - or good if he keeps it up - Big Red Time!

As time goes on, each shooter will be developing an over all  trend pattern for that session. You will not only focus in on individual shooters but you will be able to get an over all picture of the trend patterns of the table. This is a powerful tool for the selection of your right or wrong side strategies to put into action as the Situation unfolds! You will also be able to track and see on that table if trends are more powerful than individual shooters, or if an individual can upset a cold trend pattern through his knowledge of setting or rhythm rolling. This is cutting edge stuff and well worth your time learning!

Your confidence in using this chart at a casino will depend on the amount of practice time you are willing to devote to tracking exercises. Granted, you will not be able to evaluate the human side of the shooter by using your computer, but you first have to learn to feel comfortable with letter tracking. You must first learn to be accurate and then you must instantly be able to interpret a shooter's past action to determine your next move. 

Your goal must be to develop your table awareness to the point where you do not need chip tracking or pencil and paper - You will just know what to do!

Let's do a short exercise before you go to your computer (or house table). Make up a pad of tracking sheets. I am going to give you a long series of numbers. Through this connected chain of numbers I want you to separate each shooter, and write out each shooter's action. When you are finished, Click Here for the answer.

4, 5, 4, 7, 5, 7, 8, 6, 9, 11, 12, 7, 7, 5, 6, 8, 6, 6, 6, 9, 10, 4, 6, 5, 4, 4, 7, 11, 2, 5, 7, 3, 8, 8, 8, 6, 8, 4, 7, 10, 7, 6, 7

Once you feel comfortable with the basic letters S,M,L and P you may want to include another letter "K". K will stand for Key Indicator. You will be able to track to see if Key Indicators that you know work most of the time work for a particular shooter. This is the way you would record it. As soon as you recognize a Key Indicator to start your Big Red progression and pull down place bets and free odds on longer rolls,  put the letter K in the next space on your chart for the current shooter, and next to the K, put the actual number you selected . Count the next 6 rolls, if a 7 shows, put a circle around the "K" on your chart. In time you can see if a shooter (and over all conditions) is consistent or not.  If the 7 does not show in the first six rolls after you mark it, put an X through the "K". It will not take long to see if key indicators work for the session you are playing! Special Note: If your standard key indicators do not work in a consistent manner - start looking for ones that work for that session - TABLE AWARENESS!!!!! 

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Lesson # 10
Bankroll and Time to Leave

    Bankroll is a subject that most "experts" enjoy by telling you how much money you should spend. The most common amount is ten times your betting pattern. Their theory is that it takes ten shooters to have one with a hot roll. (they never studied 7-cycles!) This is just another example of them telling you something and expecting you to believe it because "they are the expert". Well I will be the first to admit that in the days I too believed the experts, I lost a lot of money waiting for that tenth hot shooter! 
    Can anyone tell you how much your bankroll has to be? I can! It has to be as much as you intend to spend on your first bet! From that point on you decide what is best for you. Bankroll is based on worst case scenario. In other words, how many bets can one make while losing every bet before his money runs out. How many bets are you willing to lose before your money runs out? That is the amount of bankroll you take to the casino! But to determine that, you have to have a structured betting pattern. If you just throw "any amount" horn bets willie-nillie - well. 
    My thoughts on having a lost limit of 50% of your bankroll. The experts say that it takes discipline to walk away when you lost 50% of your bankroll. But more important is that you feel like you are not losing if you still have chips in your rack. That sort of thinking will work against you! Your discipline is going to weaken because you will wonder and "hope" the next shooter is going to get all your money back. ( Of course I am talking about players that have not studied Situational Craps!) If you stay and lose, you are forced on a guilt trip.  Do I believe in discipline? YES! Do I believe that there is a time to stop when things are just not going the way you planed? YES! But you are not a child. Take the amount of money you are willing to lose to the casino.  However, there is one exception to taking just the amount you are willing to lose! But this revolves around motivation and discipline. If you can see the 1/2 of the double up of your bankroll as a "Comp" investment, Then by all means use the extra money to build your comp dollars! You are rated by 3 criteria - Buy-in, amount of average action and length of play. By far the most important to the casino is the buy-in. Cash is not money at risk - chips ARE! Just have the discipline to put your Comp chips aside and never use them!  

On the down side, when your rack is empty (remember the comp thing does not exist!) - leave! That is your loss limit. Your discipline will come into play by not going in your pocket or ATM for more money to continue that session!
    What about the up side? I have heard experts say that when you double your money - leave and go home a winner. Yes, going home a winner is important, but maximizing your win is more important! I can see someone leaving a hot roll at the time he reaches the point of doubling his money. He feels proud that he had the discipline to follow the experts advice. That's not discipline - that's Stupidity! So when is it time to leave on the up side? When your KNOWER shuts down. I will say it again, you are not a child that has to be told by anyone how much money you can make. Confidence in your learn knowledge of the game and risk tolerance is what it is going to take to know when to leave. Only you can determine your level of play. However, if you want some homespun advice as to when to leave a winner, here it is:

    A craps game is like going to an all-you-can eat party at a friends house. If the food taste bad - Don't eat it - walk away from the table! If you are hungry and the food taste good - eat until you get full. You just KNOW when it is time to stop eating and walk away from the table. Just understand that if you get greedy and eat too much - you will have a good chance of throwing it all up!

    Well that raps things up for the mental part for being able to play the situation as a craps game unfolds. The next section you will enter will be the Dice Setting Training Room. Here you will learn how to develop the physical part of the game. Being able to throw the dice with consistency will build your confidence and add to your excitement as you play. Take your time learning this skill - it will pay big dividends down the road! This unique training area can be linked to from my home page or if you want to go now the last craps man button will take you there. 

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